Market Outlook
January 02, 2019
Domestic Indices
Chg (%)
(Pts)
(Close)
Market Cues
BSE Sensex
0.6
186
36,254
Indian markets are likely to open positive tracking global indices and SGX Nifty.
Nifty
0.4
47
10,910
Mid Cap
(0.1)
(12)
15,426
U.S. stock markets were closed on Tuesday on account of New Year.
Small Cap
0.4
60
14,776
U.K. stock markets were closed yesterday on account of New Year.
Bankex
0.8
239
30,615
On domestic front, Indian markets versed early losses to end higher on the first
trading day of calendar year
2019, helped by gains in financials and
Global Indices
Chg (%)
(Pts)
(Close)
telecommunication companies. During the first trading day of the year
t
he BSE
Dow Jones
1.2
265
23,327
Sensex rose by 0.6% to 36,254.
Nasdaq
0.8
51
6,635
FTSE
(0.1)
(6)
6,728
News Analysis
Nikkei
(0.3)
(63)
20,014
SMEs set to get GST relief ahead of 2019 Lok Sabha elections
Hang Seng
1.3
342
25,846
Shanghai Com
0.4
10
2,493
Detailed analysis on Pg2
Investor’s Ready Reckoner
Advances / Declines
BSE
NSE
Key Domestic & Global Indicators
Advances
1,503
1,005
Stock Watch: Latest investment recommendations on 150+ stocks
Declines
1,105
724
Refer Pg5 onwards
Unchanged
185
352
Top Picks
Volumes (` Cr)
CMP
Target
Upside
Company
Sector
Rating
(`)
(`)
(%)
BSE
2,048
Blue Star
Capital Goods
Buy
625
867
38.7
NSE
ICICI Bank
Financials
Accumulate
364
416
14.3
25,670
Parag Milk Foods
Others
Buy
244
330
35.2
Bata India
Others
Accumulate
1,128
1,243
10.2
Net Inflows (` Cr)
Net
Mtd
Ytd
KEI Industries
Capital Goods
Buy
361
486
34.6
FII
4,745
5,519
(31,943)
More Top Picks on Pg4
*MFs
583
(745) -114,458
Key Upcoming Events
Previous
Consensus
Top Gainers
Price (`)
Chg (%)
Date
Region
Event Description
ReadingExpectations
UCOBANK
22
12.1
Jan 02, 2019
TU Central Bank Inflation Report
PRESTIGE
236
7.8
Jan 02, 2019
TH Exports YoY
0.06
--
JKLAKSHMI
317
7.7
Jan 03, 2019
TH Exports
$22380m
--
Jan 03, 2019
TH Imports YoY
0.24
--
QUESS
700
6.4
Jan 04, 2019
TH Imports
$21776m
--
DENABANK
18
5.3
More Events on Pg7
Top Losers
Price (`)
Chg (%)
IL&FSTRANS
13
-4.5
M&M
773
-3.8
FLFL
411
-3.3
MOTILALOFS
656
-3.2
APLLTD
582
-2.5
As on Jan 01, 2018
Market Outlook
January 02, 2019
News Analysis
SMEs set to get GST relief ahead of 2019 Lok Sabha elections
the compliance burden for small businesses at its meeting later this month.
The GST Council, chaired by union finance minister Arun Jaitley, will consider
raising the sales threshold for compulsory GST registration from ₹20 lakh to
anywhere between ₹50 lakh and ₹75 lakh. A GST Council meeting is likely to be
convened by mid-January to consider the proposal that is based on the experience
gained since the tax reform was implemented in July 2017.
At its last meeting on 22 December, the GST Council had decided to let a
ministerial panel review the revenue threshold for GST registration, tax rate on
under-construction flats and the feasibility of a concessional tax scheme for small
service providers.
The move to raise the threshold for GST registration is significant considering that
small businesses have been hit by the November 2016 demonetisation move,
business disruption in the early days of GST implementation and a credit squeeze
in recent months.
The idea of raising the bar for compulsory registration comes in the wake of
experience that many small firms with sales below ₹20 lakh have signed up for
GST in order to be part of the value chain, which is important for retaining large
customers. Also, the revenue loss from raising the sales threshold may not be
significant. A second person privy to the discussions within the council said the
revenue impact from a higher threshold of ₹50-75 lakh could be ₹800-1,400
crore. So far, all big GST relief given to SMEs was based on the premise that the
bulk of the tax receipts comes from large taxpayers.
However, the advantage of a low sales threshold for GST registration is that it
helps in formalization of a part of the economy that otherwise remains without
registration for indirect tax or for labour welfare schemes under the Employees’
Provident Fund Organisation (EPFO). The ₹20 lakh threshold helped bring a large
number of small businesses into the GST net as the tax exemption limit prior to 1
July 2017 for central excise duty was ₹1.5 crore in annual sales.
Economic and Political News
RBI allows restructuring of MSME loans up to ₹25 crore
Agriculture loan defaults increase as banks brace for big write-offs
India floats first tender to build 7.5-Gw solar power projects in Kashmir
Fresh agreement between India, Iran may start operations at Chabahar Port
Corporate News
NCLT allows govt to reopen IL&FS Group's books for the last 5 years
Aditya Birla Renewables inks PPA for 75 Mw solar plant in Odisha
Aurobindo Pharma USA recalls 80 lots of blood pressure drug from US
Natco Pharma shifts focus from US, to spend 70% funds in emerging markets
Market Outlook
January 02, 2019
Top Picks
Market Cap
CMP
Target
Upside
Company
Rationale
(` Cr)
(`)
(`)
(%)
Favorable outlook for the AC industry to augur well
for Cooling products business which is out pacing
Blue Star
6,227
625
867
38.7
the market growth. EMPPAC division's profitability
to improve once operating environment turns
around.
Well capitalized with CAR of 18.1% which gives
sufficient room to grow asset base. Faster
ICICI Bank
2,26,749
364
416
14.3
resolution of NPA would reduce provision cost,
which would help to report better ROE.
High order book execution in EPC segment, rising
KEI Industries
2,996
361
486
34.6
B2C sales and higher exports to boost the revenues
and profitability
Expected to benefit from the lower capex
Music Broadcast Limited
1,833
316
475
50.3
requirement and 15 year long radio broadcast
licensing.
Strong brands and distribution network would
Siyaram Silk Mills
1,579
354
606
71.2
boost growth going ahead. Stock currently trades
at an inexpensive valuation.
GST regime and the Gujarat plant are expected to
Maruti Suzuki
2,31,251
7,477
10,820
44.7
improve the company’s sales volume and margins,
respectively.
We expect loan book to grow at 24.3% over next
GIC Housing
1,301
262
424
61.8
two year; change in borrowing mix will help in NIM
improvement
Third largest brand play in luggage segment
Increased product offerings and improving
Safari Industries
1,741
790
1,000
26.6
distribution network is leading to strong growth in
business. Likely to post robust growth for next 3-4
years
We expect financialisation of savings and
Aditya Birla Capital
21,804
101
151
49.5
increasing penetration in Insurance & Mutual fund
would ensure steady growth.
One of the leading Indian dairy products
companies in India created strong brands in dairy
products. Rising revenue share of high-margin
Parag Milk Foods
2,092
244
330
35.2
Value Added Products and reduction in interest cost
is likely to boost margins and earnings in next few
years.
HDFC Bank maintained its steady growth in the
4QFY18. The bank’s net profit grew by 20.3%.
Steady growth in interest income and other income
HDFC Bank
5,69,184
2,150
2,350
9.3
aided PAT growth. The Strong liability franchise
and healthy capitalisation provides strong earning
visibility. At the current market price, the bank is
trading at 3.2x FY20E ABV.
Market Outlook
January 02, 2019
Continued...
Market Cap
CMP
Target
Upside
Company
Rationale
(` Cr)
(`)
(`)
(%)
We expect strong PAT growth on back of
healthy growth in automobile segment (on back
of new launches and facelifts in some of the
M&M
93,960
774
1,050
35.7
model ) and strong growth in Tractors segment
coupled by its strong brand recall and
improvement in rural sentiment
Market leader in the room air conditioner (RAC)
outsourced manufacturing space in India with a
market share of
55.4%. It is a one-stop
Amber Enterprises
2,751
907
1,135
25.1
solutions provider for the major brands in the
RAC industry and currently serves eight out of
the 10 top RAC brands in India
BIL is the largest footwear retailer in India,
offering footwear, accessories and bags across
brands. We expect BIL to report net PAT CAGR
of
~16% to
~`3115cr over FY2018-20E
Bata India
14,016
1,128
1,243
10.2
mainly due to new product launches, higher
number of stores addition and focus on
women’s high growth segment and margin
improvement
SHTF is in the sweet spot with benefits from
stronger CV volumes, NIMs unaffected by rising
Shriram Transport Finance
26,751
1,229
1,764
43.5
bond yields on the back of stronger pricing
power and an enhancing ROE by 750bps over
FY18-20E, supported by decline in credit cost.
We expect JSPL’s top line to grow at 27% CAGR
over FY19-FY20 on the back of strong steel
demand and capacity addition. On the bottom
Jindal Steel & Power Limited
15,230
163
327
100.6
line front, we expect JSPL to turn in to profit by
FY19 on back of strong operating margin
improvement.
GMM Pfaudler Limited (GMM) is the Indian
market leader in glass-lined (GL) steel
equipment. GMM is expected to cross CAGR
GMM Pfaudler Ltd
1,787
1,190
1,287
8.2
15%+ in revenue over the next few years
mainly led by uptick in demand from user
industries and it is also expecting to increase its
share of non-GL business to 50% by 2020.
Aurobindo Pharmaceuticals, amongst the
Indian Pharmaceutical companies, is well
placed to face the challenging generic markets,
given its focus on achieving growth through
Aurobindo Pharmaceuticals
42,583
731
870
19.0
productivity. Aurobindo will report net revenue
& net profit CAGR of ~13% & ~8% resp.
during FY2018-20E. Valuations are cheap V/s
its peers and own fair multiples of 17-18x.
We believe advance to grow at a healthy CAGR
of 35% over FY18-20E. Below peers level ROA
RBL Bank
24,628
576
690
19.8
(1.2% FY18) to expand led by margin
expansion and lower credit cost.
TTK Prestige has emerged as one of the leading
brands in kitchen appliances in India after its
successful transformation from a single product
TTK Prestige
9,166
7,500
8,200
9.3
company to offering an entire gamut of home
and kitchen appliances. We are expecting a
CAGR of 18% in revenue and 25% in PAT over
FY2018-20.
Source: Company, Angel Research
Market Outlook
January 02, 2019
Continued...
Market Cap
CMP
Target
Upside
Company
Rationale
(` Cr)
(`)
(`)
(%)
We expect Inox Wind to report exponential
growth in top-line and bottom-line over FY19-
20E. The growth would be led by changing
renewable energy industry dynamics in favor of
Inox Winds
1,656
77
127
64.9
wind energy segment viz. changes in auction
regime from Feed-In-Tariff (FIT) to reverse
auction regime and Government’s guidance for
10GW auction in FY19 and FY20 each.
Considering the strong CV demand due to
change in BS-VI emission norms (will trigger
pre-buying activities), pick up in construction
Ashok Leyland
30,529
103
156
51.5
activities and no significant impact on industry
due to recent axle load norms, we recommend
BUY on Ashok Leyland at current valuations.
Source: Company, Angel Research
Fundamental Call
Market Cap
CMP
Target
Upside
Company
Rationale
(` Cr)
(`)
(`)
(%)
CCL is likely to maintain the strong growth
CCL Products
3,720
270
360
33.3
trajectory over FY18-20 backed by capacity
expansion and new geographical foray
We forecast Nilkamal to report top-line CAGR of
~9% to `2,635cr over FY17-20E on the back of
Nilkamal
2,216
1,468
2,178
48.4
healthy demand growth in plastic division. On the
bottom-line front, we estimate
~10% CAGR to
`162cr owing to improvement in volumes.
Elantas Beck India is the Indian market leader in
liquid insulation segment used in electrical
equipments like motors, transformers etc. It derives
Elantas Beck India Ltd
1,674
2,212
2,500
13.0
demand from several industries which are expected
to register 10%+ CAGR in demand in the coming
years.
Greenply Industries Ltd (GIL) manufactures plywood
& allied products and medium density fibreboards
(MDF). GIL to report net revenue CAGR of ~14% to
Greenply Industries
1,607
138
256
85.5
~`2,478cr over FY2017-20E mainly due to healthy
growth in plywood & lamination business on the
back of strong brand and distribution network
L&T Fin’s new management is on track to achieve
L&T Finance Holding
29,320
153
210
37.3
ROE of 18% by 2020 and recent capital infusion of
`3000cr would support advance growth.
With a focus on the low and medium income (LMI)
consumer segment, the company has increased its
Dewan Housing Finance
6,774
246
300
22.0
presence in tier-II & III cities where the growth
opportunity is immense.
Well planned strategy to grow small business loans
and cross-selling would propel fees income. We
Yes Bank
41,696
184
290
57.6
expect YES to grow its advance much higher than
industry and improvement in asset quality to
support profitability.
Market Outlook
January 02, 2019
Global economic events release calendar
Bloomberg Data
Date
Time
Country
Event Description
Unit
Period
Last Reported
Estimated
Jan 02, 2019
JN
Housing Starts YoY
% Change
Sep
0.02
(0.01)
Jan 02, 2019
JN
Annualized Housing Starts
% Change
Sep
0.957m
0.950m
Jan 02, 2019
JN
Construction Orders YoY
% Change
Sep
0.01
--
Jan 02, 2019
12:00 AM
ES
Industrial Production YoY
% Change
Sep
0.06
--
Jan 03, 2019
12:00 AM
RO
ILO Unemployment Rate
% Change
Sep
0.04
--
Jan 03, 2019
3:15 AM
DE
Unemployment Rate SA
% Change
Sep
0.03
--
Jan 03, 2019
4:30 AM
DE
Unemployment Rate Gross Rate
% Change
Sep
0.04
0.04
Jan 03, 2019
4:30 AM
FI
Trade Balance
% Change
Aug F
-400m
--
Jan 03, 2019
4:30 AM
TU
Economic Confidence
% Change
Oct
71.00
--
Jan 04, 2019
5:20 AM
TU
Trade Balance
% Ratio
Sep
-2.42b
-1.90b
Jan 04, 2019
5:20 AM
TU
Central Bank Inflation Report
%
Jan 04, 2019
5:30 AM
TH
Exports YoY
% Change
Sep
0.06
--
Jan 04, 2019
5:30 AM
TH
Exports
% Change
Sep
$22380m
--
Jan 04, 2019
5:31 AM
TH
Imports YoY
% Sep
0.24
--
Jan 05, 2019
5:31 AM
TH
Imports
% Sep
$21776m
--
Jan 05, 2019
5:31 AM
TH
Trade Balance
Thousands
Sep
$604m
--
Jan 05, 2019
6:00 AM
TH
BoP Current Account Balance
% Change
Sep
$753m
$1200m
Jan 05, 2019
0-Jan-00
AU
CPI YoY
% Change
3Q
0.02
0.02
Source: Company, Angel Research
Market Outlook
January 02, 2019
Macro watch
Exhibit 1: Quarterly GDP trends
Exhibit 2: IIP trends
(%)
(%)
10.0
9.0
8.5
9.1
8.0
7.3
7.5
9.0
8.2
6.9
6.9
8.0
8.1
6.6
7.6
7.7
7.0
8.0
7.2
6.8
7.0
6.0
5.3
7.0
6.3
4.5
6.1
5.0
4.1
5.6
3.9
6.0
4.0
5.0
3.0
1.8
4.0
2.0
1.0
3.0
-
Source: CSO, Angel Research
Source: MOSPI, Angel Research
Exhibit 3: Monthly CPI inflation trends
Exhibit 4: Manufacturing and services PMI
56.0
Mfg. PMI
Services PMI
(%)
6.0
54.0
5.2
5.1
4.9
4.9
4.9
4.6
52.0
5.0
4.4
4.3
4.2
50.0
3.6
3.7
4.0
3.3
48.0
3.0
46.0
2.0
44.0
1.0
42.0
40.0
-
Source: Market, Angel Research; Note: Level above 50 indicates expansion
Source: MOSPI, Angel Research
Exhibit 5: Exports and imports growth trends
Exhibit 6: Key policy rates
(%)
Exports yoy growth
Imports yoy growth
(%)
Repo rate
Reverse Repo rate
CRR
35.0
7.00
30.0
6.50
25.0
6.00
20.0
5.50
15.0
5.00
10.0
4.50
5.0
4.00
0.0
3.50
(5.0)
3.00
Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research As of 25 Sep, 2018
Source: RBI, Angel Research
Market Outlook
January 02, 2019
Global watch
Exhibit 1: Latest quarterly GDP Growth (%, yoy) across select developing and developed countries
8.0
(%)
6.9
7.0
5.8
6.0
5.3
5.0
5.0
1.1
3.7
4.0
2.5
3.0
2.2
1.8
2.0
1.5
1.4
0.8
1.0
0.3
-
Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research
Exhibit 2: 2017 GDP Growth projection by IMF (%, yoy) across select developing and developed countries
(%)
6.7
6.8
7.0
6.0
5.4
5.2
5.0
3.7
4.0
3.0
1.8
2.2
2.0
1.7
1.6
1.5
2.0
0.7
0.7
1.0
-
Source: IMF, Angel Research
Exhibit 3: One year forward P-E ratio across select developing and developed countries
(x)
25.0
20.0
15.0
10.0
5.0
-
Source: IMF, Angel Research As of 25 Sep, 2018
Market Outlook
January 02, 2019
Exhibit 4: Relative performance of indices across globe
Returns (%)
Country
Name of index
Closing price
1M
3M
1YR
Brazil
Bovespa
87424
11.2
10.4
15.1
Russia
Micex
2352
-5.0
1.3
13.0
India
Nifty
10387
-5.6
-8.5
-0.6
China
Shanghai Composite
2603
-7.7
-9.5
-23.8
South Africa
Top 40
46141
-6.9
-10.1
-12.7
Mexico
Mexbol
42340
-11.2
-15.1
-11.3
Indonesia
LQ45
923
-2.4
-1.2
-8.3
Malaysia
KLCI
1704
-3.6
-4.4
-2.2
Thailand
SET 50
1104
-4.7
-0.5
0.8
USA
Dow Jones
25116
-5.8
-1.2
6.8
UK
FTSE
7085
-5.2
-8.0
-5.9
Japan
Nikkei
21770
-10.8
-3.8
-3.4
Germany
DAX
11448
-7.2
-10.6
-14.8
France
CAC
5093
-7.5
-7.6
-7.6
Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research As of 02 Nov, 2018
Market Outlook
January 02, 2019
Exhibit 7: Historical Angel Top Picks/Fundamental Calls
Date Added
Top Picks/Fundamental
Stocks
Reco Price
Target/Revised Price
Current Status
17-08-2018
Top Picks
Ashok Leyland
128
156
Open
10-08-2018
Top Picks
Inox Wind
107
127
Open
30-11-2018
Top Picks
TTK Prstige
7,206
8,200
Open
09-08-2018
Top Picks
TTK Prstige
6,206
7,500
06-07-2018
Top Picks
Aurobindo Pharma
603
780
Open
30-08-2018
Top Picks
RBL Bank
626
690
Open
06-07-2018
Top Picks
RBL Bank
565
670
06-07-2018
Top Picks
Yes Bank
348
418
Open
30-06-2018
Top Picks
Jindal Steel & Power
222
350
Open
20-06-2018
Top Picks
Shriram Transport Finance Com
1,466
1,764
Open
30-07-2018
Top Picks
Bata India
918
1,007
Open
23-07-2018
Top Picks
Bata India
842
955
01-07-2018
Top Picks
Bata India
862
948
18-06-2018
Top Picks
Bata India
779
896
14-06-2018
Top Picks
Amber Enterprises
1,026
1,230
Open
07-06-2018
Top Picks
M&M
918
1050
Open
04-05-2018
Top Picks
M&M
860
990
03-05-2018
Fundamental
L&T Finance Holding
171
210
Open
02-05-2018
Top Picks
HDFC Bank
1944
2315
Open
04-05-2018
Top Picks
Matrimony.com Ltd
573
1016
Closed(17/08/2018)
20-04-2018
Top Picks
Matrimony.com Ltd
781
984
15-05-2018
Top Picks
Parag Milk Foods Limited
310
410
Open
16-04-2018
Top Picks
Parag Milk Foods Limited
249
333
27-08-2018
Top Picks
GMM Pfaudler Limited
1,170
1,287
Open
18-08-2018
Top Picks
GMM Pfaudler Limited
1,024
1,200
07-08-2018
Top Picks
GMM Pfaudler Limited
984
1,100
29-06-2018
Fundamental
GMM Pfaudler Limited
932
1,020
14-05-2018
Fundamental
GMM Pfaudler Limited
818
900
06-04-2018
Fundamental
GMM Pfaudler Limited
712
861
07-03-2018
Fundamental
Ashok Leyland Ltd
139
163
Closed (26/04/2018)
03-03-2018
Fundamental
Greenply Industries
340
395
Open
27-08-2018
Top Picks
Safari Industries
974
1,071
Open
14-08-2018
Top Picks
Safari Industries
868
1,000
07-08-2018
Top Picks
Safari Industries
788
870
16-07-2018
Top Picks
Safari Industries
693
800
16-04-2018
Top Picks
Safari Industries
651
750
21-02-2018
Top Picks
Safari Industries
532
650
31-05-2018
Top Picks
HSIL Ltd
348
Closed (31/05/2018)
16-02-2018
Top Picks
HSIL Ltd
433
510
07-02-2018
Fundamental
Elantas Beck India Ltd.
2155
2500
Open
01-02-2018
Top Picks
ICICI Bank
352
416
Open
01-02-2018
Top Picks
Aditya Birla Capital
167
218
Open
04-01-2018
Fundamental
CCL Products
278
360
Open
03-01-2018
Fundamental
Nilkamal Ltd
1880
2178
Open
01-01-2018
Fundamental
Capital First Ltd
693
850
Closed (15/01/2018)
30-12-2017
Fundamental
Shreyans Industries Ltd
205
247
Closed
Source: Company, Angel Research
Market Outlook
January 02, 2019
Exhibit 8: Historical Angel Top Picks/Fundamental Calls
Date Added
Top Picks/Fundamental
Stocks
Reco Price
Target/Revised Price
Current Status
Fundamental
Prism Cement Ltd
160
Closed (09/05/2018)
21-12-2017
Fundamental
Prism Cement Ltd
118
131
18-12-2017
Fundamental Menon Bearings Limited
92
114
Closed (17/01/2018)
14-12-2017
Top Picks
Ruchira Papers Ltd.
188
244
Closed (09/02/2018)
17-05-2018
Top Picks
Century Plyboards India
280
Closed(17/05/2018)
28-11-2017
Top Picks
Century Plyboards India
317
400
19-12-2017
Top Picks
LT Foods
85
Closed(18/06/2018)
06-11-2017
Top Picks
LT Foods
74
96
16-10-2017
FundamentalEndurance Technologies Ltd
1111
1277
Closed (01/12/2017)
11-09-2017
Top Picks
GIC Housing
533
655
Open
10-10-2017
Top Picks
Music Broadcast Limited
404
475
Open
20-07-2017
Top Picks
Music Broadcast Limited
368
434
07-07-2017
Fundamental L&T Finance Holdings Ltd
149
179
Closed (28/8/2017)
06-07-2017
Fundamental
Syngene International
478
564
Closed (1/3/2018)
05-07-2017
Top Picks
Maruti
7371
10619
Open
05-06-2017
Top Picks
Karur Vysya Bank
127
100
Closed (12/03/2018)
23-05-2018
Top Picks
KEI Industries
481
589
Open
04-01-2017
Top Picks
KEI Industries
125
485
31-05-2018
Top Picks
Alkem Lab
1978
Closed (31/05/2018)
01-12-2016
Top Picks
Alkem Lab
1700
2441
17-10-2016
Top Picks
Asian Granito
267
534
Closed (18/02/2018)
17-05-2018
Top Picks
TV Today Network
460
Closed (17/05/2018)
04-08-2016
Top Picks
TV Today Network
297
603
05-04-2016
Top Picks
DHFL
189
720
Open
25-06-2018
Top Picks
Navkar Corporation
207
Closed(25/06/2018)
05-01-2016
Top Picks
Navkar Corporation
207
265
Open
08-12-2015
Top Picks
Blue Star
357
867
Open
30-10-2015
Top Picks
Siyaram Silk Mills
186
851
Open
Source: Company
Market Outlook
January 02, 2019
Research Team Tel: 022 - 39357800
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